Fwd: [Ti] Apple's True Market Share!

[Massimo Marino]

On Tuesday, December 10, 2002, at 07:19 PM, PowerBook G4 Titanium List 
wrote:

> Date: Tue, 10 Dec 2002 11:47:35 -0500
> Subject: Re: [Ti] Apple's True Market Share!
> From: Mike Stanley <macguy at guarded-inn.com>
> Message-Id: <15DF7086-0C5F-11D7-8DF1-000393BC0040 at guarded-inn.com>
>
>
> On Tuesday, December 10, 2002, at 11:33 AM, Massimo Marino wrote:
>
>> I  beg to differ. Statistics focusing on Windows vs Mac OS are
>> inherently biased. For example I cannot find anywhere statistics on PC
>> bought with WIndows (any flavor) inside and then end up having the HD
>> wiped out right-away and a Linux version installed at the place.
>> I know many who did exactly that which amounts to buying a computer as
>> a simple piece of hardware. Not only, have you ever heard of the class
>> suit against M$?  from users who did exactly that and asked for being
>> reimbursed the add-on on the price because the PeeCee had Windows
>> pre-installed.
>
> Well, I'm not sure how many tens or hundreds of thousands of people you
> know, but I'd be willing to bet that the percentage of people who buy a
> PC from any vendor as a complete unit - meaning they're paying the
> outrageous premium for Windows, etc - who then format that drive, thus
> throwing away $100 or more and then install Linux on it is in the low
> single digit range, if it even makes it that far.

Well the Lab I work for runs in the thousands. I know more colleagues 
running Linux on their PCs, especially on laptops, than any Windows 
flavor. Statistics are collected on a sample. The sample I have access 
to tells me - at least in my field - the percentage of Linux on general 
PC is high, not just ~1%  And of course, the people I know they all do 
have the knowledge to do that ;-) WIndows is obtained through a site 
license so there is no guilt in trashing it.

Moreover, to Apple, a single 1% would mean a lot. An awful lot even for 
Linux figures.
>
> Now have I taken an older Dell or Gateway at work and put Linux on it?
> Sure.  Have I cobbled together parts to make a Linux machine at home?
> Sure.  Do I know people who have assembled machines from brand new
> parts with the sole purpose of running Linux?  Yeah, a few.  But do I
> think there are the kind of hoards out there who a) have the knowledge
> and skill to setup their own Linux box and b) want to throw away money
> on pointless M$ licenses and do what you describe?  No way.

Nope, not hoards, that has never been my point but statistics are - 
again - biased. Network access tells Apple presence on internet is 
around 11% . Does that mean the 3% market share of Apple sales is 
wrong? Nope, but a single statistic value truly has little value. They 
only become meaningful with a big picture, Taken alone you could imply 
anything. Apple market share eroded in the last couple of years: would 
you conclude Apple sells less computers? Not at all: It actually sold 
more computers than ever, its 3% share of this year is quite larger 
than its 5% of 5 years ago in terms of absolute figures.

Also, what one should get from other posts: if you stick considering 
Apple sales against all other possible hardware vendors, each time a 
new brand, an IBM clone comes out, a PeeCrap whatever comes out (and 
they do come out, lasting a year or two before disappearing/reappearing 
elsewhere), the end result is that Apple shares is less than before. 
Does it tell you Apple is terminally ill? No way!

Also, an Apple computer has an effective life (data taken from 
thousands of users at the Lab) of roughly 4 years. A PC lasts on 
average 2 years or less. Hence the same PC user buys more PCs in his 
working life than the corresponding Mac person: does that mean PC is 
better because it sells more? To me the figure tells me exactly the 
contrary which might explain why with just 3% market share it has 11% 
presence online. Would you say PC users do not know how to go on the 
net? Or gave up fro too frequent crashes?

I hope you're getting my point on arguing on single statistical items.
>
>> Sony next year (2003) will offer consumers to buy its line of PC with
>> Linux pre-installed or no OS pre-installed with lower prices than the
>> same version with Windows pre-installed.
>> Someone in Redmont must be fuming.
>
> Sony's late to the game, then.  Other companies have done that for
> years, although most of the big ones have pulled back from the Linux
> pre-installed part of it.  Sony may be the first major company to make
> it *easy* for a normal consumer to buy an OS-less machine.  And they
> just might sell a few of them - but I doubt they'll sell boatloads of
> them.
>
>
That was the message. It is the first major company doing that, not 
just a little IBM-clone trying to cut a biggest slice of the pie.

Massimo Marino
NERSC Division - HPC Department
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 
http://www.slac.stanford.edu/~marino
On leave at CERN, CH, EP Division, Atlas experiment
phone: (+41) 22 767-1288 fax: (+41) 22 767-8350 Office: 40-3-D16
alternate email: marino at slac.stanford.edu, marino at mail.cern.ch, 
Massimo.Marino at cern.ch