[CUBE] Cube Enclosure- has become- (OT) iPod discussion

[david sarcastix]

Alan Thompson11/7/03 8:59 AMathomp2 at mac.com

> they've done very well so far - but the portion of PC users that are
> still unaware of iTunes at this point is staggering.  Imagine the level
> of use in another year or so.

True, True.  But I think it will be less than what simple arithmetic would
predict.

I believe that fully half of the Pee-Seas in the US are parked in businesses
and government offices, as well as schools.

A Pee-Sea in a bank or gas station is not going to be used for downloading
from iTunes.  

Plus, I think that  owners of Macs generally have more disposable income to
spend on things like music. Also, these are people looking for $600
computers.  Spending $300 to play music might be a stretch for them.

I believe that when the entire Pee-Sea consumer market is aware of iTunes,
that sales will be very strong indeed.  But it won't be 10-20 times as much,
as the simplistic way of judging market share would suggest.

If 50% of Pee-Seas are not owned buy music buying consumers, then Apple has
almost 20% of the download music buying consumers (so far in our little
equation).

And if Macs last much longer (which they do) then I would be bold enough to
suggest that Apple has more like 30% of the legal download music buying
public (and software buying and peripheral buying).

And Mac owners, I think, are more likely to spend extra income on music.

I think that this explains the STRONG opening of iTunes for the Mac.

While Pee-Sea owners are more likely to be illegal P2P users.

So my guess is that ITMS for Windows will do maybe 2-3 times better than
ITMS Mac.

Which will create a lot of head scratching among the pundits and chattering
class of journalists.

I can see the headlines now: "Windows Buyers Lukewarm to ITMS, Sales Only 3X
Mac Sales"

Journalists have access to all the numbers I have, they just don't connect
the dots.

Of course, the foundation that all this rests on is the iPod.  If the
Pee-Sea world (or even Sony) makes a cool mp3 player, then things could
shift the other way.  But Apple isn't standing still, and the numbers of new
gadgets and add-ons to the iPod just keep growing.  Using the iPod as a
digital recorder is awesome.  I paid $800 for a Sony portable DAT recorder.
If, in the near future, you can record uncompressed AIFF files to an iPod,
that would be awesome.  I have friends now who are drooling at the prospect
of using their iPods for recording.

David Sarcastix

http://www.sarcastix.com

> 
> On Nov 6, 2003, at 9:28 PM, david sarcastix wrote:
> 
>> (OT) BTW iTunes Music Store outsold Napster 5-1 in the past week.
>> ITMS has
>> 80% of the download market.  As far as the music industry is concerned,
>> Apple has won.